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University, Gambling, and the Greater Fool

Author: Michael Sanders

University, Gambling, and the Greater Fool

The betting company Ladbrokes have begun offering students (and their parents) the opportunity to bet on their eventual university degree classifications. This, as may have been predictable (and may have been the intention) has attracted a level of opprobrium from groups concerned about youngsters gambling away their student loans foolishly.

What does economics tell us about this? To begin with, this looks like a fairly standard asymmetric information problem, from which students can only benefit. In general, it is not sensible to make a bet with someone who has more information with you, or who has control over the outcome of that bet. For example, I bet you a million pounds that the next sentence will contain the word banana. Clearly, you won’t take the bet because I can control the outcome banana.

For students, the deal is a good one. They know how clever they are, and they know how hard they will work. Even if there is some noise associated with their outcome (bad days, sick pets, or grandmother fatalities), it is a fair bet that the people beginning their university lives this week have more control over the outcome than Ladbrokes do. So why are Ladbrokes taking these bets (and actively encouraging them)?

One possibility is that Ladbrokes are cash poor, and want to raise finance quickly. They take money in now from students placing their bets, but don’t need to pay out for three years. A perfectly sound theoretical argument, but it seems unlikely, either (a) that Ladbrokes can’t find better rates on what is essentially a loan on the open market, or (b) that students are so cash rich that they’re making long term investments.

A second possibility is that Ladbrokes is a ‘greater fool’ – a person who buys high and sells cheap, so that the rest of us can profit. Given their track record, I suspect not.

More likely, they are relying on students being greater fools. Where traditional economic theory tends to assume that agents observe their own quality with certainty (or, in English, what we know how good we are), behavioural economics suggests otherwise.

Overconfidence is an issue across many dimensions. It leads us to pay for expensive gym contracts we’ll never use and to drive less carefully than we should . Even among hyper-rational investors, it leads to over-investment in our own firms. So, even though we know that only 5% of students will get a first class degree, we rate our own chances at 10%. For some people this may be true, but for most it will not, and so firms like Ladbrokes can profit from our misconception.

Behavioural Economics offers useful tips on self control, and I’d encourage anyone at the beginning of their university career (or later in), to think about them seriously. There are times when it is good to be a greater fool, this is not one of them.

Post Script: A Rational Bet

On circulating this post internally, I’ve been asked under what circumstances you should take this bet. For almost everyone at Bristol, studying the social sciences, the odds you’ll get betting on a 2:1 are probably about 5/6 (Bristol isn’t one of those featured on the Ladbrokes site), so you’d lose money whatever you do. If you’re confident of getting a 2:1, however, you might be interested to know what happens if you work a bit less hard and bet on yourself getting a 2:2. Here the odds are better, probably about 12:5 – so you’ll get your initial investment back, plus an additional 140%. A recent working paper from the LSE finds that the return to a 2:1 is 2040 a year. If we extrapolate this for a 45 year career, that’s an extra £91800 over the course of your lifetime. Assuming a constant rate of inflation at 3% over that time, you’d need £181,516 now in order to maintain the same standard of living for your entire life. To win that, you’d need to bet £129,654 right now in order to be indifferent between getting a 2:2 and winning the bet, or getting a 2:1 and not betting. I’d still recommend against it, though.

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